Modelling election poll data using time series analysis

There is much interest in election forecasting in the UK. On election night, fore­casts are made and revised as the night progresses and seats declare results. We propose a new time series model which may be used in this context. Firstly, we have statistical models for the polls conducted in a run-up to the election; the model produces the distribution of voting amongst the parties. The key here is the use of modelling the probability of voting each poll as latent variables. Secondly, we use this information in the forecasting of the inevitable outcome, continually revising our forecasts as the actual declarations are made, until we can actually determine what we believe the final outcome to be, before it actually happens. We outline the nature and history of elections in the UK, and provide an account of time series analysis. These tools, as well as the theoretical basis of our method, the h-likelihood, are then applied to the creation of each of our models proposed. We study simulations of the models and then fit the models to actual data to assess forecasting accuracy, using existing models for comparison

REX:a development platform and online learning approach for Runtime emergent software systems

Conventional approaches to self-adaptive software architectures require human experts to specify models, policies and processes by which software can adapt to its environment. We present REX, a complete platform and online learning approach for runtime emergent software systems, in which all decisions about the assembly and adaptation of software are machine-derived. REX is built with three major, integrated layers: (i) a novel component-based programming language called Dana, enabling discovered assembly of systems and very low cost adaptation of those systems for dynamic re-assembly; (ii) a perception, assembly and learning framework (PAL) built on Dana, which abstracts emergent software into configurations and perception streams; and (iii) an online learning implementation based on a linear bandit model, which helps solve the search space explosion problem inherent in runtime emergent software. Using an emergent web server as a case study, we show how software can be autonomously self-assembled from discovered parts, and continually optimized over time (by using alternative parts) as it is subjected to different deployment conditions. Our system begins with no knowledge that it is specifically assembling a web server, nor with knowledge of the deployment conditions that may occur at runtime

Growth, Yield and Economic Potential of Cavendish Banana Planted in Oil Palm Gaps

The mortality of a few trees leads to the emergence of palm gaps or unproductive areas in oil palm plantations. These areas offer the potential for integrating a secondary crop, such as, the Cavendish banana (Musa acuminata Colla). This banana is a well-established clonally propagated variety which is well known to local planters, but to date, little information is reported about its agronomy, yield, management, and economic potential as an intercrop in oil palm plantations. In the present study, Cavendish suckers were planted in palm gaps and the respective information was assessed. The suckers were collected from the mother plants in Kota Belud, Sabah. The suckers were planted in polybags for conditioning, and after a month, transplanted at 1.8 m 1.8 m distance in palm gaps of the oil palm area in UMS Campus, Sandakan. The planting density was 10 saplings/(2.3 m x 6.0 m) gap. Weeds were machine-cut in the first 11 months, but after that, only when necessary. The weeds were also controlled with application of Glyphosate once/year. Fertilizer was applied once/year as 0.5 kg of NPK15:15:06, NPK15:15:15, and NPK12:12:17, respectively. Compost was added once/year as 1.5 kg of chicken dung and goat manure, respectively. Trees yielded fruits within seven to eight months of transplantation. The banana trees were 2.2±0.2 m tall at fruiting. The yield was 14.6±0.2 kg banana-hand/bunch. The banana hands were 2.0±0.1 kg/hand. There were seven banana hands per bunch, with a weight that ranged from 3.29±0.22 kg (top), 1.92±0.05 kg (middle) to 1.37±0.19 kg (bottom/last) per hand. The banana hands were sold at RM4.0/kg. The profit was RM56.0/bunch, or RM4.06/m2 /banana. The net profit was RM40.39/banana, or RM29.26/m2 , not accounting fruit processing and marketing costs, which was not so applicable in this study. In addition, the banana foliage shaded and thereby suppressed the growth of weeds, reducing the manpower and associated cost of weeding in the oil palm area

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13

Search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu channel in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu decay channel, where l = e or mu, in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is presented. The data were collected at the LHC, with the CMS detector, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 inverse femtobarns. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation, and upper limits are set on the Higgs boson production cross section. The presence of the standard model Higgs boson with a mass in the 270-440 GeV range is excluded at 95% confidence level.Comment: Submitted to JHE

Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up and down type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. These results significantly reduce the allowed parameter space for a fourth generation of fermions.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles at high transverse momenta in PbPb collisions at sqrt(s[NN]) = 2.76 TeV

The azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles in PbPb collisions at nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 2.76 TeV is measured with the CMS detector at the LHC over an extended transverse momentum (pt) range up to approximately 60 GeV. The data cover both the low-pt region associated with hydrodynamic flow phenomena and the high-pt region where the anisotropies may reflect the path-length dependence of parton energy loss in the created medium. The anisotropy parameter (v2) of the particles is extracted by correlating charged tracks with respect to the event-plane reconstructed by using the energy deposited in forward-angle calorimeters. For the six bins of collision centrality studied, spanning the range of 0-60% most-central events, the observed v2 values are found to first increase with pt, reaching a maximum around pt = 3 GeV, and then to gradually decrease to almost zero, with the decline persisting up to at least pt = 40 GeV over the full centrality range measured.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments

In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one